Essential Financial Concepts & Calculations
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Financial Concepts and Calculation Practice
Expectation Theory and Two-Year Rates
Problem: If the one-year rate on an instrument is 9.0% and the expected rate for a one-year instrument one year from today is 9.89%, what is the expected two-year rate today, if the expectation theory holds?
- One-year rate: 9.00%
- One-year rate, one year forward: 9.89%
Formula: (1 + R1) * (1 + ER2) = (1 + R2)^2
Calculation:
(1 + 0.09) * (1 + 0.0989) = (1 + R2)^2(1.09) * (1.0989) = (1 + R2)^21.197801 = (1 + R2)^2sqrt(1.197801) = 1 + R21.094449 = 1 + R2R2 = 0.094449
Expected Two-Year Rate: 9.44% (approximately 9.4%)
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