Spain's Demographic Evolution: Historical Population Changes

Demographic Transition in Spain: A Historical Analysis

The demographic transition describes the process by which a population shifts from a state of high birth rates and high mortality rates (resulting in low natural growth) to one of low birth rates and low death rates (also leading to low natural growth). This transformation typically occurs in several distinct phases.

Phase 1: The Pre-Transitional Phase (Late 19th Century)

This initial phase, beginning in Spain in the late 19th century, was characterized by high birth rates, primarily due to economic and religious factors. Concurrently, high mortality rates prevailed, largely attributable to underdeveloped medicine, a deficient healthcare system, and poor sanitation. In these years, birth rates often exceeded 35 per thousand, while mortality rates hovered around 30 per thousand. A significant mortality crisis occurred in 1885, triggered by an epidemic.

Phase 2: Moderate Growth (Early 20th Century to 1930s)

During this phase, birth rates remained high. However, thanks to improvements in public health and medical advancements, mortality rates began to decrease rapidly. Before the catastrophic death toll of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, mortality was around 22 per thousand, while birth rates remained stable at approximately 30 per thousand. Following this, birth rates saw a recovery during the economic prosperity of the 1920s. This recovery was abruptly halted by the 1929 economic crisis and the subsequent political instability of the Second Republic (1931-1935) and the Civil War (1936-1939), during which significant mortality occurred. In the years that followed, the Francoist dictatorship implemented a natalist policy, which temporarily halted the final decline of birth rates that had begun in the 1930s.

Phase 3: Rapid Growth (1940-1975)

This period, spanning from 1940 to 1975, saw birth rates remain consistently high, typically ranging between 19 and 22 per thousand. While these rates did not fully recover to pre-1930 levels, they showed a tendency to decrease gradually. The sustained high birth rates were largely influenced by the natalist policies of the Francoist dictatorship, whose effects were felt until around 1960, after which the impact of emigration to Europe became more noticeable. Concurrently, mortality continued to decline due to the widespread adoption and improvement of the public health system. The combination of high birth rates and declining mortality led to a significant rejuvenation of the population. By the end of this phase, the birth rate was close to 20 per thousand, and mortality did not exceed 9 per thousand.

Phase 4: Decline in Natural Growth (Post-1975)

This phase commenced with the introduction of the democratic system in Spain. From 1975 onwards, birth rates experienced a rapid and significant decline, mirroring the sharp drop observed during the 1930-1940 decade. Several factors contributed to this reduction, including:

• A delayed fertile period for women.
• An increase in the average age of marriage.
• Women's increased participation in the workforce.
• Overall increase in life expectancy.

During this period, mortality rates began to rise, primarily due to the aging of the population, while birth rates continued their downward trend.

Phase 5: Demographic Stagnation (Current)

Following the sharp decline and subsequent stagnation of birth rates, coupled with an increase in mortality, Spain has entered the final stage of its demographic transition. Currently, the average number of children per woman is insufficient to guarantee generational replacement. This demographic reality implies that the average age of the population will continue to increase rapidly, necessitating the integration of a larger active population to sustain economic and social structures.