The Security Dilemma: Anarchy, Fear, and State Conflict

Defining the Security Dilemma

The Security Dilemma is a situation where the increase in one state’s security (e.g., military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security. Consequently, it can lead to an escalation of tension (war/conflict) involving one or more parties, producing an outcome which no party truly desires.

Butterfield: Fear as the Ultimate Source

Herbert Butterfield argued that “the greatest war of history can be produced without the intervention of criminals; it could be produced between two powers.” He mentioned several propositions:

• The ultimate source is fear leading states to protect themselves, deriving from the “universal sin of humanity.”
• It requires uncertainty over others' intentions.
• Its origin is unintentional.
• It produces tragic results, as states have no control over others' actions.
• It can be exacerbated by psychological factors; it’s provocative/aggressive.
• It is the fundamental cause of all human conflicts.

Herz: Anarchy and the Vicious Cycle

John H. Herz described a situation where the efforts of states to improve their security tend unintentionally to increase the insecurity of others, since each interprets its own actions as defensive and those of the other as potentially threatening.

“No state can ever feel entirely secure in a world of competing units.”

According to Herz, power competition involves several elements:

• The ultimate source is anarchy (the lack of a higher authority).
• The cause is states' uncertainty and fear about each other's intentions.
• It resembles an arms race; it's a cycle of power competition.
• States attempt to escape the security dilemma by accumulating more power.
• The security dilemma can cause war.
• There's a “vicious cycle” of self-reinforcing insecurity.

Jervis: Defensive Actions and Escalation

Robert Jervis described situations where the actions of a state seeking to improve its security lead another state to respond similarly, generating tensions and conflicts. He noted that many means by which a state tries to increase its security decrease the security of others.

Key points from Jervis:

• An increase in one state's security makes others less secure because of the anarchic concept in International Relations (IR).
• The possibility of a state becoming aggressive doesn't guarantee its own peace.
• Defensive actions must be considered in this context.
• He denies that the security dilemma is the heart of all conflicts.

Tang: Three Factors Driving the Dilemma

Shiping Tang identified three contributing factors:

1. International anarchy: There is no international government, so states are the ultimate guarantors of their own safety.
2. Real absence of hostile intentions in the states affected by the dilemma (initially).
3. Accumulation of power near a border and military capability produces fear in other states. Mistrust has a material foundation, not just based on perceptions.