Risk Management & Environmental Impact Analysis

Risk Assessment Fundamentals

The risk of an event (R) is calculated by multiplying the hazard (P) by the exposure (E) and vulnerability (V), expressed in per unit. The formula is: R = PEV.

Hazard

This is the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging event in a specific region and at a determined point. Various factors influence hazard, such as the geographic distribution of the event, the surface area, or the return time. The different degrees of risk of an event in a given area are represented on maps called hazard maps.

Exposure

Exposure refers to the total number of people (social exposure), or the total amount of assets (economic exposure), or areas of high ecological value, which can be affected by an event. Similarly, maps are developed with reference to the exposure of the population density.

Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the proportion or percentage of human casualties and economic losses caused by an event in relation to total exposure. The graphical representation of this factor is a vulnerability map.

Risk Mapping Techniques

Risk mapping can produce maps for the three primary risk factors: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. If we combine these three factors into a single map, we get a risk map. A risk map is a cartographic representation of a geographic area that is colored with different colored areas as the magnitude of an event. It uses a darker color for higher risk. Risk mapping is essential in planning processes.

Effective Risk Planning

Risk planning involves introducing measures to protect against different types of risks.

Predictive Measures

Predictive measures for risk include:

• Studying risk mapping.
• Analyzing event precursors.
• Installing surveillance networks.

Preventive Measures

Preventive measures can be categorized as structural or non-structural.

Structural (or Corrective) Measures

These measures modify the geological structure or involve constructing buildings to prevent damage (e.g., preventing flooding by building a dam).

Non-Structural Measures

Non-structural measures do not alter the geological structure or involve constructions to prevent damage. These include:

• Risk mapping.
• Establishing monitoring and warning systems.
• Spatial planning to avoid the use of land where the risk is major.
• Environmental education.
• Cost-benefit analysis: This involves comparing the economic costs of applying corrective risk measures with the resulting benefit, measured as a reduction in the number of casualties or economic losses.

Understanding Environmental Impacts

Concept of Environmental Impact

An impact is any change in different systems produced by human activities, including the exploitation of natural resources. The main environmental impacts can be classified as follows:

(Further classification details are not provided in this document.)

Assessment of Environmental Impacts

The assessment of impacts involves numerous effects, many of which are unpredictable (e.g., fire). The impact is described by terms such as temporary or permanent, localized or extensive, high-magnitude, medium, or low, etc. The results can be expressed as a matrix whose cells comprise these terms. Also, a quantitative assessment can be made using numbers, calculated from scales established by experts, with results expressed as double-entry matrices.