Risk Assessment, Planning, and Mitigation Strategies

Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Risk assessment and mitigation are based on studying the extent of damage caused by similar events in the past and related factors. It takes into account three factors:

Hazard (P)

Hazard is the probability of a phenomenon whose severity makes it potentially harmful in a particular place within a specific time interval. It is assessed from three perspectives:

• Severity: Assesses the magnitude of the event and is classified into different categories or degrees of danger (from zero to catastrophic) or within the maximum risk or medium risk.
• Time of return: Frequency or how often the event repeats.
• Geographic distribution: Areas hit by a historically specific phenomenon.

Vulnerability (V)

Vulnerability is the degree of effectiveness of a particular social group to adapt their organization compared to those changes in the environment that incorporate risk. It increases in direct proportion to the inability of the human group to adapt to changes and determines the intensity of damage that may occur. Measures include susceptibility to damage, the means to address them, the degree of awareness of the hazards, the condition of infrastructure, and existing measures.

Exposure (E)

Also called value, exposure represents the total number of persons or property exposed to the risk. With increasing exposure (overcrowding), the damage from the danger of the event increases. It can be:

• Social: The number of people involved is valued as the number of victims or potential victims.
• Economic: Taking into account the economic losses in EUR/year.
• Ecological: Taking into account the number of living species affected or the extent of environmental degradation.

Risk Assessment

Risk (R) is the product of the three factors above, so that if one is aborted, the risk disappears. R = PVE

We can distinguish:

• Total risk (R = PVE)
• Specific risk (R = PV) shows the extent of expected losses after a natural catastrophic phenomenon, regardless of exposure.

Risk can be assessed in terms of two types of parameters:

• Quantitative: Depending on the number of people killed or injured or losses depending on the economy.
• Qualitative: Depending on the severity of the economic, social, or ecological damage caused, the risk can be assessed in degrees.

Risk Planning

Risk planning aims at developing measures to address all hazards. These measures fall into two areas:

Prediction

Prediction is announced in advance. Risk maps, often cartographic representations, contain data collected from the historical record of events. With them, you can predict where and when they will occur and what their likely severity will be.

Prevention

Prevention is prepared in advance by applying a series of measures to mitigate damage or eliminate the effects of different types of risks.

• Structural measures: Modify or make geological structures suitable for buildings. They reduce the danger in some cases, and especially the vulnerability. They can reduce their exposure if they use specific surveillance systems.
• Non-structural measures: Involve issues of social and political nature, such as:
  • Planning
  • Civil protection
  • Risk education
  • Establishing safety
  • Cost-benefit analysis