Population Dynamics: Malthus, Demographic Transition & Trends

Population

Demography is the scientific study of population. It draws upon several components of population, including size, composition, and territorial distribution, in order to understand the social consequences of population. Demographers also study geographical variations and historical trends in their effort to develop population forecasts.

Malthus's Thesis

The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834) was educated at Cambridge University and spent his life teaching history and political economy. His written work contains strong criticisms of two major institutions of his time — the church and slavery — yet the most significant legacy of Malthus for contemporary scholars is his still-controversial work An Essay on the Principle of Population, first published in 1798.

Karl Marx, who was a contemporary of Malthus, could not accept the Malthusian notion that rising world population, rather than capitalism, was the cause of social ills. In Marx's opinion, there was no special relationship between world population figures and the supply of resources (including food). If society were well ordered, increases in population should lead to greater wealth, not to hunger and misery.

The phenomenal growth of world population in recent times can be accounted for by changing patterns of births and deaths. On the basis of historical data from European countries, it appears that preindustrial populations (before 1750) were characterized by both high death rates and high birth rates. Since the world growth rate is the difference between births and deaths, the increase in population was limited.

Demographic Transition

Changing Patterns of Births and Deaths

The changes in birth and death rates in 19th-century Europe serve as an example of demographic transition. Demographers use this term to describe an observed pattern in changing vital statistics. Specifically, demographic transition is the change from high birth and death rates to relatively low birth and death rates. This concept was first developed by demographer Warren S. Thompson (1929) and later elaborated by Frank W. Notestein (1945). It is now widely used in the study of population trends.

Demographic transition is typically viewed as a three-stage process:

1. High birth and death rates with little population growth.
2. Declining death rates, primarily the result of reductions in infant deaths, along with high to medium fertility — resulting in significant population growth.
3. Low birth and death rates with little population growth.