Geopolitics: Middle East Conflicts and US Policy

Global Energy Dynamics and Geopolitics

Key Oil Consumers and Producers

The global energy landscape is defined by major consumers and producers. Key consumers include:

• United States (US)
• China (CN)
• India
• Japan (Jap)
• Saudi Arabia (SA)
• Brazil (Bra)
• South Korea (SK)
• Germany (Germ)
• Canada (CA)

Major exporting nations and producers include:

• Canada (CA)
• Saudi Arabia (SA)
• Venezuela (Ven)
• Mexico (Mex)
• Iraq
• Colombia (Col)
• Ecuador (Ecua)
• Brazil (Bra)
• Kuwait (Kuw)
• United States (US)
• Russia (Ru)
• China (CN)
• Iran
• United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The Genesis of Modern Middle East Conflicts

Establishment of Israel and Early Wars

During World War II, King Ibn Saud maintained good relations with the Allies. Britain controlled Palestine until 1948. Zionist leaders, notably David Ben-Gurion, declared independence, and President Harry S. Truman quickly recognized the State of Israel.

The Six-Day War (1967)

The conflict saw Israel destroy 309 out of 340 Egyptian planes in preemptive strikes. President Lyndon B. Johnson sent 50 fighter jets to the region. Arab nations suffered significant losses.

The PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization), led by Yasser Arafat, became a central political force. This period also saw the Munich Olympic Massacre, where 11 Israeli athletes were killed by Palestinian terrorists.

The 1970s: Oil Shocks and Diplomacy

OPEC and the Yom Kippur War

The Yom Kippur War (1973) prompted the US to launch Operation Nickel Grass, an airlift delivering 22,000 tons of supplies to Israel. In retaliation, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) imposed an oil embargo, causing a 70% price hike. OPEC members at the time included:

• Venezuela (Ven)
• Ecuador (Ec)
• Iran
• Iraq
• UAE
• Saudi Arabia (SA)
• Qatar (Qat)
• Kuwait (Kuw)
• Libya
• Nigeria

Carter's Diplomacy: Camp David Accords

President Jimmy Carter brokered the Camp David Accords between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. Egypt agreed to recognize Israel in exchange for the return of the Sinai Peninsula.

US Foreign Policy and Regional Crises (1979-1990)

Iran Hostage Crisis and Failed Operations

The Iran Hostage Crisis saw 52 Americans held captive for 444 days. The US froze $8 billion in Iranian assets. Operation Eagle Claw, the rescue attempt, failed disastrously.

Cold War Proxy Conflicts

In Afghanistan, Operation Cyclone provided substantial support to the Mujahideen ($3 billion total aid). The region was destabilized by the Iran-Iraq War and the Lebanon Civil War. The Iran-Contra Affair revealed that the US secretly supplied arms to both Iran and the Contra rebels in Nicaragua.

Terrorism and Retaliation

During the 1980s, US forces faced severe attacks in Lebanon: 46 personnel were killed (KIA) at the US Embassy in Beirut, and 241 Marines were killed at the barracks in Beirut. President Ronald Reagan subsequently withdrew US forces.

The US shot down two Libyan planes. In response to the West Berlin disco bombing, the US bombed Libya in Operation El Dorado Canyon. The terrorist bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, killed 270 people; Al Megrahi was later convicted. The hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro by Muhammad Zaidan (Abu Abbas) resulted in the murder of Leon Klinghoffer.

Post-Cold War Era and Peace Initiatives

The Persian Gulf War (1990-1991)

President George H.W. Bush led the coalition during the Persian Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm) to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.

Clinton Era Diplomacy: Oslo Accords

President Bill Clinton oversaw the Oslo Accords, which established the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated shortly thereafter. The Treaty of Peace between Israel and Jordan normalized relations, with the US providing $1 billion in debt relief to Jordan.

Failed Operations Against Al-Qaeda

Attempts to capture Osama Bin Laden (OBL) included Operation Infinite Reach, which failed. Subsequent operations like Desert Strike (leading to troop withdrawal) and Desert Fox (which failed to secure access for weapons inspectors in Iraq) highlighted ongoing regional instability.

The War on Terror and Shifting Alliances

Operation Enduring Freedom and the Axis of Evil

Following 9/11, Operation Enduring Freedom was launched in Afghanistan. President George W. Bush identified the Axis of Evil: Iran, North Korea (NK), Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Cuba. This was followed by Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003).

Normalization and Conflict Resolution

Libya agreed to pay $2.7 billion in compensation for the Lockerbie bombing and $46 million for the West Berlin bombing victims, ending its Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) programs. The US subsequently lifted its embargo and restored diplomatic relations.

Tensions continued with Iran over its nuclear program and the assassination of scientists. In Lebanon, Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel, leading to the 2006 July War (sometimes termed "mowing the lawn"). The Annapolis Conference (2007) failed to achieve a lasting peace agreement.

Recent Geopolitical Flashpoints

The Gaza Wars and Arab Spring

Operation Cast Lead (Gaza War, 2008-2009) resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,400 Palestinians. The Gaza Strip continues to suffer from extreme poverty (80% rate).

President Barack Obama's Cairo Speech sought to improve relations between the US, Israel, and the Muslim world. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia following the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi. In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak was overthrown, leading to the brief rule of Mohammed Morsi, followed by the authoritarian regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

The Syrian Civil War and Red Lines

The Syrian Civil War under Bashar Al-Assad has resulted in approximately 480,000 deaths. President Obama declared a "red line" regarding the use of chemical weapons. Other nations affected by instability included Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria.

The death of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya occurred amid regional factors, including a large young population (100 million), high unemployment (20%), and the influence of social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook.

Nuclear Diplomacy and Current Tensions

The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran Nuclear Deal) was heavily criticized by Israel. The US abstained from UN Resolution 2334 regarding Israeli settlements. The US later recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and withdrew from the JCPOA.

President Donald Trump ordered missile strikes on Syrian targets, including Shayrat and later Homs. The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi further strained relations with Saudi Arabia.