US-China Rivalry: The Shift from Unipolarity to Bipolarity

China's Rise and the Global Security Dilemma

The rise of China can be viewed as both beneficial and detrimental, depending on the perspective adopted. If China ascends to the top tier of global powers, it would inevitably create global insecurity for many nations, particularly the U.S.

In the international system, states concerned with security inherently compete for power. As this contest for power intensifies, security concerns increase, fostering an atmosphere of fear, especially among great powers due to their significant military capabilities. This dynamic also creates a shift in the global power structure.

From Unipolarity to Bipolarity

Currently, the structure is in a “unipolar moment,” where the U.S. reigns as the world’s regional hegemon. This, however, can only persist for so long, as nothing lasts forever in the international system.

If China succeeds in rising as a global power, the structure will transition to bipolar, forcing both powers to struggle to overcome the other. As the power struggle continues, the dominating power will likely act in its own interests to maximize benefits for itself or its region. Consequently, other states may be subjected to rules or regulations that cause more harm than good to their nations and economies.

Predicting Conflict: Ideological Containment

I believe that the rise of China will lead to conflict and challenge, though perhaps not in the dramatic ways often predicted. Becoming a hegemon is the ultimate goal of a rising nation. While a world with a single great power is often idealized, this scenario is especially unlikely in today's world.

The Western Order has the capacity to accommodate rising powers like China through its strong framework of rules and regulations. However, as this benefits China, the U.S. begins to feel threatened—driven by the desire to remain the sole regional hegemony—and smaller states feel increasingly insecure.

This dynamic will likely lead to an ideological cold war between China and a U.S.-led coalition focused on containment. Explicitly violent conflict is improbable, as it risks setting off a global conflict that could escalate into another world war. This scenario would be the last possible outcome, as avoiding a third world war remains the paramount global interest.