The Balkan Conflicts: Yugoslavia's Disintegration

In the post-Cold War era, NATO and the European Union (EU) faced significant challenges. From its inception in 1918, Yugoslavia had been subject to strong centrifugal tendencies. World War II resistance leader Josip Broz Tito restored Yugoslav unity, largely due to the unifying force of communist ideology. This delicate balance teetered after his death in 1980 and completely collapsed after January 1990.

Breakup of Yugoslavia and Early Conflicts

• In December 1990, Serbs elected Slobodan Milošević, who subsequently seized national assets on behalf of Serbia.
• Slovenia declared independence in December 1990.
• As fighting erupted over disputed territories with mixed populations, the presidents of the six republics failed to revive a loose confederation.
• On June 25, 1991, Croatia declared independence, and the fighting rapidly spread.

International Response and Escalation

During the Cold War, the United States had patronized Yugoslavia. In late 1991 and early 1992:

• Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina declared independence.
• The European Community (EC) and the United States imposed sanctions on Yugoslavia.
• A UN delegation sought Serbian support for a cease-fire and peacekeeping forces.
• The UN Security Council became deeply involved.

Fighting escalated throughout 1992, particularly in Bosnia.

US Policy and NATO Intervention

During the 1992 U.S. presidential campaign, Bill Clinton criticized President George H.W. Bush for his ineffectual Balkans policy. NATO powers were initially unwilling to discipline the Serbs unless the United States contributed ground troops. The bombing of a crowded market in Sarajevo in February 1994 forced Clinton to threaten Serbia with air strikes. Russia, however, argued in support of Serbia and promoted its own plan for a partition of Bosnia. Clinton ultimately vetoed any plan that condoned Serbian aggression.

Mid-1994 Situation and Hostage Crisis

By mid-1994, the geopolitical landscape had shifted:

• Slovenia was independent and at peace.
• Macedonia was admitted to the UN.
• Croatia controlled almost all its putative territory.
• Yugoslavia, now significantly reduced, included only Serbia, Montenegro, and portions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The nascent state of Bosnia was severely hampered by the ongoing conflicts. To combat Serb aggression, the UN, NATO, and the United States debated whether to retaliate with air strikes. By the autumn of 1994, UN peacekeepers were literally being held hostage by the Serbs, highlighting the dire situation.

Path to Peace: The Dayton Accord

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter then embarked on his third mission, shuttling between Bosnian Serbs and Muslims. He fashioned an interim truce, which was reaffirmed in a UN-brokered accord on December 31. By December 1995, a comprehensive peace accord was drafted, known as the Dayton Agreement. This agreement created a loosely federalized Bosnia and Herzegovina, divided roughly evenly between a Bosniak-Croat Federation and a Serb Republic (Republika Srpska).