EVPI and EVSI: Expected Value, Utility & Decision Analysis
Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
Expected Value of Perfect Information = Expected payoff with perfect information – Expected payoff without perfect information.
Expected payoff with Perfect Information: Create a new row in the payoff table which lists the best payoff for each state of nature. Determine the expected payoff of this row to obtain the expected payoff with perfect information.
Expected payoff without Perfect Information: The expected payoff of the best decision when you use the expected value approach (choose the alternative with the highest expected payoff).
Posterior Probabilities and EVSI
Posterior probabilities arise when you obtain additional testing or survey data (at some expense) to improve prior state probabilities....