Understanding Bond Types and Yield Curve Theories
Yield Curve Theories
What explains the different forms the yield curve can take? Two main theories attempt to explain this:
- Theory of Expectations
- Theory of Market Segmentation
Theory of Expectations
There are three main forms within the theory of expectations:
- Pure Expectations Theory
- Liquidity Premium Theory
- Preferred Habitat Theory
a) Pure Expectations Theory: According to this theory, forward rates exclusively represent the expectation of future rates. In statistical terms, they would be an unbiased estimate of spot rates that will prevail in the future.
b) Liquidity Premium Theory: To tempt an investor to hold long-term bonds, they should be offered at least an interest rate that is higher than the average of future expected rates, plus a premium...