Spain's Demographic Transition: Birth Rates and Aging Trends

The Current Demographic Regime in Spain

Since 1975, Spain has experienced a demographic regime characterized by low birth rates, low mortality, and minimal natural growth. This decline in birth rates, which began in 1975, was both later and more abrupt than in the rest of Western Europe.

Fertility and Generational Replacement

• The fertility rate dropped to 1.15 in 1998.
• In 2004, the rate was 1.32, significantly below the 2.1 threshold required for generational replacement.
• There has been little significant recovery, as immigration has not altered the habits of the Spanish population, which has maintained a Malthusian behavior since 1975.

Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Birth Rates

The economic crisis following 1975 increased unemployment, delayed the age of marriage—shortening the woman's fertile period—and decreased birth rates. Since the 1980s, the following factors have further hindered youth emancipation:

• Insecurity of employment contracts.
• High costs of housing (purchase and rental).
• Shortage of part-time jobs and affordable childcare.

Cultural and Social Shifts

A change in mentality occurred following the Transición Democrática (1975):

• The Catholic Church lost influence.
• Widespread use of contraceptives and the legalization of abortion.
• Increased female participation in the workforce.
• Emergence of diverse family structures and a preference for smaller families to ensure better living conditions.

Mortality Trends and Life Expectancy

The mortality rate remains low (8.7 in 2004). However, since 1981, it has experienced a rise due to the aging of the population. Life expectancy has increased, reaching approximately 83 years for women and 75 for men in 2004.

Causes of Mortality

The primary causes of death have shifted from infectious diseases to CCC (Cardiovascular diseases, Cancer, and road accidents). Additionally, the aging population has led to an increase in Alzheimer's and dementia cases. Infant mortality is low (3.99‰ in 2004) and continues to decline due to medical advances.

Inequality in Mortality

Mortality rates differ by sex and socioeconomic status:

• Gender: Women have higher life expectancy due to biological factors and lifestyle differences, though the gap is narrowing as habits equalize.
• Socioeconomic Status: Mortality is higher among lower-qualified occupations, while upper classes benefit from better access to quality healthcare.

Future Outlook

The current natural increase is minimal (0.09‰ in 2004). According to INE projections, trends point toward continued stagnation of birth rates, population aging, and increased mortality as larger generations reach the age of 65 and beyond.