Evolution of Spanish Demographic Regimes: A Historical Analysis

The Old Demographic Regime

The first or pre-industrial phase of the demographic regime extends well into the 18th century. High birth and death rates mean that natural growth is very low. By 1490, the estimated population of the Iberian Peninsula was about 6.25 million. From 1540, the combined effects of famine and plague wrought havoc, with the plague claiming 25% of the population. In the 17th century, numerous deaths were also occasioned by Spanish wars. The population, which was around 8.5 million at the end of the 16th century, had fallen to 7.5 million by the early 18th century.

The Demographic Transition

• First Phase: Begun in the 18th century, the birth rate remains high while mortality descends. Natural growth is very fast and high.
• Second Phase: Begun in the 19th century, there was a reduction in both births and mortality. Despite the reduction in the rate of growth, the population shows an overall increase of around 6 million.

The Modern Demographic Regime

Between 1900 and 1975, the demographic development of Spain was relatively constant. The growth trend was altered in 1918 due to the Spanish flu, and between 1936 and 1939 following the Civil War and its aftermath. Population growth throughout the 20th century has been about 8%. Recovery occurred immediately after 1941, maintaining steady growth until the "baby boom."

From 1975 to today, there has been a collapse of birth rates, a drastic diminution of mortality, extended life expectancy, population aging, and stabilization at high levels:

• Birth rate: Evolved from 34.5 per thousand (1900–1910) to 9.5 per thousand in 1999.
• Mortality rate: Decreased from 24.5 per thousand in 1900 to 9.2 per thousand in 1999.

The decline is attributed to advances in medical science and the generalization of healthcare. Furthermore, there is an unequal incidence according to sex and social class:

• Gender: Women have a longer life expectancy due to higher biological strength and lower exposure to risk-prone practices.
• Social Class: Mortality is significantly higher in poorer classes compared to affluent ones.